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Fundación Loros
Loros.org

Release simulator

Conceptual model grounded in scientific literature. Not predictive.

Conceptual framework in development, not real projections. It is a theoretical experiment under construction: a framework for reasoning about the factors of a release, not a validated or predictive model. The values still need calibration and variables may be missing or superfluous. The results are not real survival probabilities and must not be cited or taken as predictions.

Day 1/ 193

Outcome of this run

Dies on day 193 · Predation

Night-time predation by a snake (boa or Spilotes) on the sleeping bird (day 193)

seed 353695049
ind 46% · prep 11% · sitio 50% · post 5%
Kilometers flown (cumulative)0 km
At startAt end
Physical condition
Overall health7678(+2)
Hydration8680(-6)
Satiety7293(+21)
Energy / condition7990(+11)
Stress & emotion
Cortisol (stress)5047(-3)
Fear / neophobia2827(-1)
Flight & mobility
Flight condition3030
Cognition & territory
Territory memory1516(+1)
Known fruiting trees44
Known water sources33
Social
Flock integration1212
Social statusUsually solitary
Behavior
Structure attraction3333
People attraction3333

Events of the day

MorningOpportunistic pecking (fallen fruit, seed)
MiddayMilestone: First 25 m flight
MiddayMilestone: First landing on a branch
MiddayMilestone: First night without getting lost

Physiological indicators · first year

Evolution across the 365 days. Vertical lines mark the months.

Physical condition

Overall health78

Integrates the year’s accumulated wellbeing

Hydration80

§2.3 critical limiting factor

Satiety93

§2.4bis depends on knowing how to eat

Energy / condition90

§2.4bis usable reserves

Stress & emotion

Cortisol (stress)47

§3·§4 cascade multiplier

Fear / neophobia27

§4.2 suppresses foraging and exploration

Flight & mobility

Flight condition30

§2.4 pectoral atrophy / training

Kilometers flown (cumulative)0 km

Grows from ~50 m/day to ~20 km/day; more km = more skill, fewer daytime raptors

Mobility (flight + energy)60

Range of the shift

Cognition & territory

Territory memory16

§3.3 degraded by stress

Known fruiting trees4

Accumulate with each discovery

Known water sources3

Mental map of where to drink

Social

Flock integration12

§2.5 collective vigilance

Behavior

Structure attraction33

↓ with flight and trees; ↑ if it finds food in buildings

People attraction33

↓ with the flock and independence

Emotional timeline · day by day

Each day’s dominant emotion, based on the prior state and what happens that day.

1
CalmExploringAlertFearPanicExhaustion
AugustOctoberDecemberFebruaryAprilJune

Milestones since release

Achievements in the wild, with the day since release each occurred. Breeding is exceptional in the first year.

15 of 25 milestones

Flight

  • First 25 m flightDay 1
  • First 100 m flightDay 3
  • First 500 m flightDay 9
  • First 1 km flightDay 15
  • First long 5 km flightDay 176
  • First circling flightnot yet
  • First landing on a branchDay 1
  • Returns to the release point from afarDay 34

Social life

  • First flight in a flocknot yet
  • Forms a stable pairnot yet
  • First flight with its matenot yet

Foraging & resources

  • First fruit tree usedDay 9
  • Second fruit treeDay 9
  • Third fruit treeDay 9
  • Uses the station feedernot yet
  • Discovers a water sourceDay 3
  • Feeding independence (2 weeks unsupplemented)Day 102

Settlement

  • First night without getting lostDay 1
  • Survives the first monthDay 30
  • Passes the critical period (90 days)Day 90
  • Wild establishment (1 year)not yet

Breeding

  • Finds a nest cavitynot yet
  • Occupies a nestnot yet
  • Lays eggsnot yet
  • Chicks hatchnot yet
Conceptual model based on scientific literature (Brightsmith et al., Sanz & Grajal, White et al., IUCN). Probabilities reflect relative trends, not measured empirical rates. Should not be used for operational release decisions.