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Release simulator

Conceptual model grounded in scientific literature. Not predictive.

Day 1/ 356

Outcome of this run

Dies on day 356 · Predation

Depredación nocturna por una serpiente (boa o Spilotes) sobre el ave dormida (día 356)

seed 63041352
ind 41% · prep 11% · sitio 50% · post 4%
Kilometers flown (cumulative)0 km
At startAt end
Physical condition
Overall health7678(+2)
Hydration8680(-6)
Satiety7258(-14)
Energy / condition7978(-1)
Stress & emotion
Cortisol (stress)5049(-1)
Fear / neophobia3230(-2)
Flight & mobility
Flight condition3030
Cognition & territory
Territory memory1516(+1)
Known fruiting trees44
Known water sources33
Social
Flock integration124(-8)
Social statusUsually solitary

Events of the day

MorningNeofobia: rodeada de plantas pero no las reconoce como comida
AfternoonTeme al follaje; pernocta en una estructura humana expuesta
MiddayHito: primer vuelo de 25 metros
MiddayHito: primer aterrizaje seguro en una rama
MiddayHito: pasa la primera noche en el punto de suelta sin perderse

Physiological indicators · first year

Evolution across the 365 days. Vertical lines mark the months.

Physical condition

Overall health78

Integrates the year’s accumulated wellbeing

Hydration80

§2.3 critical limiting factor

Satiety58

§2.4bis depends on knowing how to eat

Energy / condition78

§2.4bis usable reserves

Stress & emotion

Cortisol (stress)49

§3·§4 cascade multiplier

Fear / neophobia30

§4.2 suppresses foraging and exploration

Flight & mobility

Flight condition30

§2.4 pectoral atrophy / training

Kilometers flown (cumulative)0 km

Grows from ~50 m/day to ~20 km/day; more km = more skill, fewer daytime raptors

Mobility (flight + energy)54

Range of the shift

Cognition & territory

Territory memory16

§3.3 degraded by stress

Known fruiting trees4

Accumulate with each discovery

Known water sources3

Mental map of where to drink

Social

Flock integration4

§2.5 collective vigilance

AugustOctoberDecemberFebruaryAprilJune

Emotional timeline · day by day

Each day’s dominant emotion, based on the prior state and what happens that day.

1
CalmExploringAlertFearPanicExhaustion
AugustOctoberDecemberFebruaryAprilJune

Milestones since release

Achievements in the wild, with the day since release each occurred. Breeding is exceptional in the first year.

simulator.milestones.achievedCount

Flight

  • First 25 m flightDay 1
  • First 100 m flightDay 4
  • First 500 m flightDay 9
  • First 1 km flightDay 16
  • First long 5 km flightnot yet
  • First circling flightnot yet
  • First landing on a branchDay 1
  • Returns to the release point from afarDay 39

Social life

  • First flight in a flocknot yet
  • Forms a stable pairnot yet
  • First flight with its matenot yet

Foraging & resources

  • First fruit tree usedDay 12
  • Second fruit treeDay 12
  • Third fruit treeDay 12
  • Uses the station feedernot yet
  • Discovers a water sourceDay 2
  • Feeding independence (2 weeks unsupplemented)not yet

Settlement

  • First night without getting lostDay 1
  • Survives the first monthDay 30
  • Passes the critical period (90 days)Day 90
  • Wild establishment (1 year)not yet

Breeding

  • Finds a nest cavitynot yet
  • Occupies a nestnot yet
  • Lays eggsnot yet
  • Chicks hatchnot yet
Conceptual model based on scientific literature (Brightsmith et al., Sanz & Grajal, White et al., IUCN). Probabilities reflect relative trends, not measured empirical rates. Should not be used for operational release decisions.